🎓Suzanne SALLES Thesis Defense
Tuesday 16 December 2025 at 9h30
Phd Thesis ISAE SUPAERO, Amphi 3
Impact of Climate Change on Aircraft Take-off Performance: Quantifying Future Performance Degradation Through Climate Projections for Adaptation Planning
As aviation contributes approximately 2-3% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, un- derstanding how climate change reciprocally aects aircraft operations represents a crit- ical aspect of the sector's climate response. This thesis quantifies the impact of climate change on commercial aircraft take-o performance through a climate-aviation modelling approach, contributing to adaptation planning within aviation's broader climate responsi- bilities. Using a multi-model ensemble of 26 bias-corrected members across six CMIP6 cli- mate models under contrasting emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the research assesses future aircraft performance degradation at 60 major airports globally spanning diverse climate zones. The methodology combines aircraft performance modelling with bias-corrected climate projections to evaluate changes in take-o field length (TOFL) re- quirements driven by rising temperatures and evolving wind patterns. A semi-empirical TOFL formulation incorporating thermodynamic thrust estimation, regulatory climb con- straints, and wind eects was developed to capture the sensitivity of take-o performance to atmospheric conditions. The study first characterises the projected evolution of tem- perature and wind conditions at each airport, revealing significant spatial heterogeneity in climate impacts. Notably, airports already experiencing extreme heat, such as those in the Middle East, are not necessarily those facing the strongest relative increases in temperature or performance degradation. Results indicate substantial increases in TOFL by the end-of-century period (2075-2100), with impacts varying considerably by emission scenario and geographic location. Regional patterns show the most significant degra- dation at high-altitude airports in tropical and subtropical climates. The frequency of inoperable days, defined as days when conditions prevent safe take-o at a given time, is projected to rise substantially under high-emission scenarios, particularly at hot and high-altitude locations. This integrated, ensemble-based assessment provides quantitative projections of operational risks posed by climate change, supporting adaptive strategies in aircraft performance standards, long-term airport infrastructure planning, and future air- craft design to enhance resilience under increasingly challenging atmospheric conditions. While adaptation measures are essential for maintaining operational safety, these findings also underscore that such strategies cannot substitute for emission reductions across the aviation sector and beyond.
| M. Paul WILLIAMS | University of Reading | Reviewer |
| Mme Nicole VIOLA | Politecnico di TORINO | Rapporteure |
| M. Laurent TERRAY | CERFACS | Examiner |
| M. Nicolas BELLOUIN | Institut Pierre Simon Laplace | Examiner |
| M. Nicolas GOURDAIN | ISAE-SUPAERO | Thesis director |
| Mme Sophie RICCI | CERFACS | Thesis co-director |
| M. Marc Wetterwald | Airbus Toulouse | Invited member |
| M. Stéphane Burguburu | Safran Paris | Invited member |
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