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The activity on uncertainty quantification at CERFACS aims to estimate uncertainties for numerical models requiring large computational resources. We develop environmental risk assessments, data assimilation approaches, probabilistic optimization and coupling improvements for High Performance Computing applications.

At CERFACS, the activity on uncertainty quantification relates to the transversal axis “Data-Driven Modeling” and is at the crossroads of the Environment, Climate, Aerodynamics and Combustion thematic axes. Applications at CERFACS concern flood forecasting, prediction of atmospheric dispersion of pollutants, wildfire propagation, representation of climatic variability and combustion chamber ignition calculations.

The main actions are :

  • Ensemble-based simulations with scalar and functional variables, including dimension reduction strategy
  • Development and evaluation of reduced models for large scale problems
  • Use of reduced models for sensitivity analysis, optimization and data assimilation
  • Development of efficient algorithms for stochastic estimation with solvers of increasing complexity (multi-fidelity, multi-level Monte Carlo/MLMC)

These actions are deployed on the following applications:

  • Development of uncertainty quantification algorithms for real scale computation with efficient, scalable and robust domain decomposition algorithms
  • Development of reduced models for sensitivity analysis and ensemble data assimilation, application in hydraulics and aerodynamics for large uncertain variables
  • Application of reduced models for atmospheric boundary layer simulations in the context of uncertainty quantification, application to micro-scale meteorology and in particular to pollutant dispersion
  • Application of multi-fidelity and MLMC algorithms for industrial computational fluid mechanics, multidisciplinary systems and geosciences.
  • Parametric sensitivity tests of global climate model projections to assess uncertainties in regional and global climate risks
  • Simple climate models to assess data constraints on global climate projection uncertainty




A bronze medal to Cerfacs for “Allons-Y À Vélo” !

CERFACS |  26 July 2021

A bronze medal to Cerfacs for "Allons-Y À Vélo" ! Cerfacs is on the podium for its cycling regularity during the "Allons-Y À Vélo" period (May 25 - June 25) in its category (100-500 employees).During this period, 37% of Cerfacs employees came to work by bike during at least 4 consecutive days. "Allons-Y À Vélo" is a campaign organised by the association "2 Pieds 2 Roues" and "La Maison du Vélo de Toulouse" to promote the use of the bicycle for every day travels; all details can be found on allonsyavelo.le-pic.org . Cerfacs encourages its employees to use their bicycle to come to work as they benefit from the bicycle mileage allowance (FMD for Forfait Mobilité Durable) of up to 500 Euros per year.Read more

The H2OPE project wins the prize Joseph Fourier 2021

CERFACS |  26 July 2021

The H2OPE project wins the prize Joseph Fourier 2021 The prize, launched by Atos and GENCI, aims to reward the work of researchers, academics and industry in two strategic areas: Advanced Computing (HPC, Quantum, Edge) and Artificial Intelligence, and, in the 2021 edition , gives particular importance to Decarbonation. The 1st Prize was awarded to the H2OPE or “H2OPErability for safe and clean gas turbine engines” project from CERFACS in Toulouse. This project aims, via the LES AVBP code, to model at high resolution a mixed combustion process associating conventional fuels with hydrogen (bi-fuels) as one of the most promising technical solutions to achieve "net zero emissions" of CO2 in the industrial sector. It was presented by Walter Agostinelli, Davide Laera, Laurent Gicquel, and Thierry Poinsot. Press release :Read more