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Climate Variability and predictability

CLImate Variability and PRedictability: from Ocean to Continental impacts: CLIPROC


General context

The ratification of the 2015 Paris Agreement engages countries and civil society in attenuation (i.e. actions to rapidly limit the emission of greenhouse gazes) but also adaptation strategies (i.e. actions to limit the impact of present and forthcoming changes). In the latter context, it is important for a broad range of stakeholders and decision makers to know how the mix of the response to anthropogenic forcing and the impact of internal variability will shape the near term evolution of climate, especially at regional scale. This goal remains very challenging and in spite of decades of study and extensive progress in climate system modeling and observations, significant obstacles in applying this knowledge to actionable predictions remain.



To achieve reliable regional climate forecasts/projections, it is essential to reduce model biases, to better understand the physical processes at the origin of the variability, to adequately account for its internal component and assess its level of predictability as climate (mean background state, worldwide teleconnection, extremes) is changing due to human activities. The interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, seasonal-to-multiannual variations of climate on global and regional scales is the backbone of the activities carried out within the CLImate Variability and PRedictability: from Ocean to Continental impacts (CLIPROC) research theme at Cerfacs.




Research areas

The CECI has a mainstay tradition to carry out theoretical and applied research on climate variations and related impacts, on a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. Research of CLIPROC focuses on different questions, including:

  • Decadal variability & predictability
  • Detection and attribution
  • Climate change and Impacts
  • Predicting sea ice variability and changes and their impact on the climate system
  • Air-sea interaction and climate model biases

Research ecosystem

Work within the CLIPROC theme requires strong interactions with the Coupling, Exascale and AI/Data Science, UQ, Data assimilation strategic axes at Cerfacs, and with external partners. The Climate theme at CECI has strong interactions with the CNRM, notably through the official climate modeling group CNRM-CERFACS, that actively worked during the 2014-2019 period on the development of CNRM-CM6 and CNRM-ESM2 suite of models for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The Climate theme has also strong collaborations with other laboratories in Toulouse such as Mercator, LEGOS, and CNES.




Thierry Poinsot officially entered the French Academy of Sciences

CERFACS |  8 November 2021

Thierry Poinsot officially entered the French Academy of Sciences on October 12. See presentation here :Read more

The AVBP code from CERFACS at the heart of for PRACE projects from the 23rd call

CERFACS |  30 September 2021

Cerfacs is involved in three PRACE projects of the 23rd call for which hour allocation runs from 01/10/2021 to 30/09/2022. Researchers from ECL/LMFA UMR5509 (Ecole Centrale de Lyon) and IMFT (UMR 5502) laboratories have earned projects entirely based on the use of the LES solver developed by Cerfacs AVBP and involve the support of experts from the CFD and COOP teams underling the importance and effectiveness of collaborations between French labs and Cerfacs. Alexis Giauque from ECL/LMFA UMR5509 (Ecole Centrale de Lyon) has obtained not only one but two PRACE projects! The first project LESFAN (RA0101, 30 000 000 CPU hours on Irene/Rome TGCC) is based on the use of AVBP in the turbomachinery version to study the generation of noise by a fan of a real airplane engine. The second, PRACE-EDGES (RA0101, 40 000 000 CPU hours on Irene/Rome TGCC) focuses on LES modeling of dens gas in complex geometries. To do so, the LMFA Team has developed advanced thermodynamic closures in AVBP allowing the direct simulation of such flows. Laurent Selle from IMFT (UMR 5502) has received CPU hours for the GASTON project (RA0061, 30 000 000 CPU hours on Marenostrum BSC) which aims to study the structure of hydrogen flames in porous materials. For this, IMFT and Cerfacs will perform coupled simulations considering the reactive flow with AVBP as well as the conduction in the porous medium with AVTP which is known to play an central role in the flame stabilization process. Carlos Perez Arroyo from IMFT (UMR 5502) received 16 Mh CPU hours on Joliot-Curie Skylake partition to support his project WONDER.Read more