Cerfacs Enter the world of high performance ...

The increase in the magnitude and in the frequency of high-temperature extreme events as a result of climate change will impact the aviation operations, with socioeconomic, environmental and even health consequences. The main goal of this thesis is to assess the potential impact of increasing high-temperature extremes on aircraft takeoff performance, focusing on the Euro-Mediterranean climate-change “hotspot” region. First, the future evolution of high-temperature extremes is studied. Second, the potential impact is assessed in terms of the engine performance and pollutant emissions, in particular of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and in terms of the aircraft's Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW). Simulations performed with Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs) are considered in a multi-ensemblist approach. The bias-corrected future climate projections are used as input to an engineering software for analysing the engine's behavior, and an empirical law is applied to the climate data to estimate the MTOW. A robust positive trend is found for the levels of NOx emissions and the MTOW limitations in future climate (by 2021-2050 and 2041-2070). Despite these significant trends, large uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the impacts, primarily due to uncertainties in the climate projections. This justifies the efforts by the climate community to reduce these uncertainties, in order to provide more relevant regional-scale information for climate change mitigation and adaptation.