The extent of the recent wildfires in Australia significantly exceeded the projections of any member of the multi-model CMIP archive. This highlights how current multi-model ensembles may be under-representing the risks of natural disasters under climate change. Limited coupled system process representation in most models coupled with a lack of parameter uncertainty exploration means that some risks are not explored by the existing international multi-model framework. This calls for a reassessment of how to focus climate model development on providing robust risk quantification for those impacts which most directly affect society.
Sanderson, B.M., Fisher, R.A. A fiery wake-up call for climate science. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2020)